Reports from news agencies indicate that new military movements are currently taking place in northern Syria. Turkey and its allied militia forces are reinforcing their troops along the border with Syria, and it appears that these military groups are preparing for a large-scale assault on areas controlled by Syrian Kurds. According to reports, armed individuals affiliated with Turkey have brought significant military equipment close to the border city of Ain al-Arab (Kobani).
This is not the first time that Kobani has been subjected to military attacks by Turkey-backed armed forces. In 2019, Kobani was also attacked; that year, the United States initially opposed Turkey’s military assault on the Kurds, but later Turkey and the United States reached an agreement behind political negotiations on the matter. Ultimately, in 2019, after Turkish-affiliated military forces captured parts of the region, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the establishment of a safe zone in these areas for the relocation of Syrian refugees, extending 444 kilometers in length and 32 kilometers deep into Syrian territory.
Erdogan fears Kurdish independence and it is clear that, under the guise of this military operation, he aims to weaken the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria. However, it is uncertain whether the forces aligned with and influenced by his government will remain as quiet this time or if they are nurturing other objectives.
Another question is whether the United States will be willing to compromise again on Ankara’s demands, and will the Kurds once more become the victims of US political games in Syria?
What is evident is that the United States, particularly over the past decade, has consistently relied on Kurdish forces to achieve its objectives in Syria. Via their support, Washington has managed to gain control over the country’s oil resources and maintain its military bases in Syria.
A few days ago, Julani, the leader of the ruling military group in Syria, stated, “All armed groups in this country will be disbanded, and weapons will only be in the hands of government forces.” This raises the question of whether the military assault on the Kurds could be part of a shared scenario between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkey, or if each player is pursuing different goals.
These are just some of the speculations surrounding the issues that could shape the landscape of potential changes in northern Syria. We must wait and see what unfolds in the coming days in the arena of military conflicts in the region and what impact each of the opponents and internal and external players in Syria will have.