Health minister warns Iran to become oldest country in region within 15 years
Iranian Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi highlighted the pressing issue of population aging in Iran, predicting that the country will become the oldest in the region within the next 15 years.
“With the current rate of population growth, we will reach this significant demographic shift in the near future,” he remarked during the 58th session of the Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tasnim news agency reported.
Zafarghandi emphasized the gravity of the situation, noting that by the end of the current Iranian year (March 20, 2025), the country is expected to witness fewer than one million births annually.
He stated, “The population issue is serious and carries cultural, economic, social, and political dimensions.”
The health minister pointed out that other countries are also grappling with demographic crises, but Iran’s situation is particularly alarming as it has reached this point in just a decade, unlike other nations that have taken 50 to 70 years. He stressed, “Our development trajectory is different; we are facing this phenomenon while in the process of development.”
Echoing the minister’s concerns, Mohammad Javad Mahmoudi, head of the National Institute for Population Research (NIPR), reported that the elderly population is increasing at a rate five times that of the overall population growth.
He explained, “Aging is a process where the proportion of older individuals in the population rises while the share of younger people declines, primarily due to decreased fertility rates.”
Mahmoudi elaborated on the implications of this demographic shift, stating that while reductions in mortality rates across all ages have minimal impact on age composition, a decline in mortality during the later stages of life significantly contributes to aging. “As economic and social conditions improve, mortality decreases and life expectancy increases, resulting in more individuals living to older ages,” he noted. This trend, combined with declining fertility, leads to a structural transformation in the population’s age distribution.
He further highlighted global aging trends, indicating that in 2019, there were 703 million individuals aged 65 or older worldwide, a number projected to double to 1.5 billion by 2050.
Mahmoudi warned that by 2050, nearly one-third of Iran’s population will be elderly, with the percentage of those over 60 expected to rise from around 10% in 2015 to 33% in 2050.