Future of Iran-Syria ...
Page 1
Recent developments in Syria can be attributed to the convergence of several key factors. Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine war and Moscow’s significantly reduced military and political support for Damascus, the weakened position of Lebanese Hezbollah following recent conflicts with Israel, and Turkey’s decisive support for Syrian opposition groups, including both terrorist groups and political opponents, along with undeniable deep public dissatisfaction with Syria’s economic conditions, all contributed to this fundamental change. These factors, combined with the gradual erosion of forces loyal to the Damascus government, created conditions that allowed opposition groups to take control of the capital with unexpected speed.
The tripartite division has the potential for long-term conflicts. Unclear boundaries between zones of influence, disputes over natural resources, and regional power competition could lead to ongoing tensions. Additionally, this situation could serve as a model for the fragmentation of other countries in the region and create a wave of instability in the Middle East.
As evident, the balance of power in the region has been severely affected by these developments. Turkey, as one of the main winners of these changes, is now in a better position to exert influence in Syria. Meanwhile, the resistance axis led by Tehran must update its capabilities and approaches in accordance with current developments to face new threats likely to emerge soon from Turkey and other rival and enemy countries in our peripheral area.
Syria’s practical division creates significant security risks for neighboring countries - Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. Refugee flows, cross-border violence, and potential sectarian tensions are likely to increase. Turkey, currently hosting over three million Syrian refugees, hopes that with Assad’s fall, these refugees will return to their country. For Iraq and Lebanon, this instability could worsen their fragile political and economic situations.
In the current circumstances, the international community must play a more active role in managing the Syrian crisis. The absence of a unified and internationally-recognized government in Syria likely means continued sanctions, which could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and create conditions for extremism to flourish. In this situation, efforts to create an inclusive governmental structure that considers the interests of all ethnic and religious groups appear necessary.
Although the fall of the former regime and Assad’s relinquishment of power was met with joy by Syrians dissatisfied with the status quo, it’s unlikely that this political change will quickly lead to improved economic conditions in the country. In the coming months, as complex consequences of this instability emerge, we might witness positive and nostalgic feelings towards Assad’s era and desires for his return to power! Overall, Syria’s and the region’s future depends on how this transition period is managed and the cooperation between regional and international actors. Success in this path requires a deep understanding of existing complexities and adopting a realistic and comprehensive approach.
In these circumstances, our country, as one of the main allies of the Syrian nation and former political system, is naturally affected by developments in Damascus. However, our country can still preserve some of its interests in Syria by emphasizing and highlighting common ground between the two countries. Of course, there are many challenges in this path, the most important being the psychological and media warfare by resistance enemies who will try to shape an unfavorable image of Iran in Syrian public opinion and thus prevent the preservation and development of ties between the Syrian and Iranian nations. Therefore, one of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most important approaches towards Syria should be utilizing media diplomacy and highlighting Iran’s services and achievements in Syria and in serving the Syrian nation. We must recognize that today’s Syria is no longer Assad’s Syria, and naturally, our approaches, policies, and even expectations from this country should be adjusted according to current circumstances.
Personally, I believe that in this new era, the country’s cultural and media diplomacy should seriously focus on presenting a clear picture of Iran’s historical role in Modern Syria.