Europeans seeking either...
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However, this is contingent on the Europeans not resorting to excuses and genuinely seeking to resolve the challenges. The European approach is currently not constructive, but the talks must continue. After all, all agreements have started from this path of dialogue. At present, the resumption of talks can be a promising development.
What do you think the main challenge will be between the two sides? Is the nuclear issue still the central point of contention and disagreement?
Currently, Europe’s top priority is the Ukraine war, which has also been a major factor in driving a wedge between Europe and Iran. The Europeans have taken a tough stance against Tehran, accusing it of providing military aid to Russia, and have even imposed sanctions on Iran. Nevertheless, it appears that the nuclear issue remains the top priority for Europe regarding Iran.
What has kept the nuclear issue at the top of the agenda is the approaching deadline for the expiration of the nuclear deal, or the “sunset” of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in October 2025. The Europeans are worried that if they fail to reach an agreement with Tehran on the nuclear issue by then, they will lose their leverage, namely the “snapback” mechanism, which could reinstate all sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. Of course, they will also raise their positions and demands on the Ukraine issue during the talks, but their overall strategy is to coordinate with the new US president, Donald Trump, to either trigger the snapback or extend the nuclear deal. This round of negotiations has been in the “brainstorming” phase and is still far from formal negotiations to reach agreements.
You mentioned that Europeans are looking to reinstate sanctions or extend the nuclear deal. Is there a possibility of exploring a new agreement? Do you think Europe and the US under Trump’s presidency will be on the same page regarding Iran?
It’s possible that they will put a new agreement on the table that covers various topics of interest to them, including nuclear, defense, and regional policies of Iran. However, Iran’s position on non-nuclear issues, namely defense and regional policies, is clear, just as the negotiations leading to the JCPOA only focused on nuclear issues and did not directly address other topics. More time needs to pass to see in which direction the talks will go. I think neither Trump is the same as the previous Trump, nor is Europe, nor even Iran. The differences between Europe and Trump’s America on issues like NATO and Ukraine are serious, but it’s possible that they may see the Iran issue as a common ground to prevent their differences from deepening.
How likely do you think it is that the US will join the talks between Iran and Europe?
I highly doubt that the US will join the talks for now, as the new administration has not yet taken office. What’s happening in the US right now is that other countries are lobbying with Trump or candidates for various positions.
Is it possible that Iran might also begin lobbying with the new US administration before it officially takes office?
It depends on whether Iran’s national interests dictate it and whether decision-makers have made an assessment to that effect. If national interests call for it, officials won’t hesitate, whether through direct or indirect lobbying, in secret or in public. In fact, fundamental differences are no barrier to holding talks to resolve disputes or reduce tensions. Therefore, it depends on Iranian decision-makers whether they engage in such lobbying efforts now or wait for the US administration to start work and see what policy they adopt towards Iran.