Implications of Trump’s ...
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This is evident in the UK, France, South Korea, Senegal, India, Turkey, the Netherlands, and many more. The reality was the starkest in Japan and Botswana, where the ruling parties suffered defeats despite having ruled their respective countries in almost all elections (in case of Japan) or the entirety of their history (in case of Botswana). Germany and Canada haven’t had their elections yet but it seems that in both countries the ruling party is expected to lose as well. The only democracy bucking this anti-incumbent trend was Mexico. So, in a way, the Democrats’ failure to keep the White House and the Senate should be understood as a part of this global trend.
In this regard, it’s obvious that the two trends which explain this phenomenon are (1) the backlash to rising inflation and (2) the further normalization of far-right ideologies and political parties and groups. Now in the US, inflation was under control by the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, without recession or a rise in unemployment (what economists call a soft landing). While the economic recovery under Biden was successful by objective measures, it’s clear that the voters could not believe this good news and punished the Democrats accordingly. Also, it’s evident while the American public do not approve of many aspects of Trump’s ideology, they do not consider them deal-breakers.
What does this mean for Iran?
Benjamin Netanyahu was apparently happiest person when he heard the news of Trump’s victory. We must accept the situation in Palestine to become much worse. Netanyahu is going to see Trump as an opportunity to not only completely demolish and possibly reoccupy the Gaza Strip, but to annex the West Bank. Miriam Adelson, Trump’s second largest donor, had, according to credible reports, conditioned her support for Trump on him greenlighting the annexation of the West Bank by Israel, and Trump had accepted the condition. Netanyahu will probably also attempt to wipe out Hezbollah to the north.
There is also no doubt that the American foreign policy is going to be much worse regarding Iran. Brian Hook, one of the biggest enemies of Iran in the US, will take over as acting Secretary of State, and he will have a pivotal role in the next administration. All rumored and reported officials for relevant positions are people who are staunchly anti-Iran (including Mike Pompeo for Secretary of Defense). There is little doubt that the policies of maximum pressure and toughened sanctions implementation will return.
More importantly, Iran must be very wary of war. While it is true that Trump himself has no desire for war with Iran, one must keep in mind that he is prone to very rash and reckless acts (who can forget the assassination of General Soleimani?). Netanyahu will also aim to drag the US and Iran into war with each other despite both actors being unwilling, knowing that Israel cannot defeat Iran without US support. Netanyahu can bank on the US acting irrationally and without regards to consequences, while Iran’s pride making it unable to ease tensions and de-escalate at the critical moment, thus dragging both into an unwanted war. This is why Iran must really prioritize prudence and carefulness at this critical moment and try to engage Trump diplomatically as much, though we might find it an unsavory prospect.