How Trump’s Iran...
GOPs, Dems cut from same cloth
Mohammad-Sadegh Koushki
Political analyst
If we take a closer look at the 40-year history of the US’s confrontational approach toward Iran, we will realize that a significant portion of the sanctions and anti-Iranian actions took place under Democratic administrations. The sanctions were first slapped on Iran during Jimmy Carter’s presidency, and we saw them ratchet up during Bill Clinton’s eight-year tenure. As a result, we have not noticed any fundamental difference in the American approach.
The reason is that long-term strategies dominate US foreign policy, with presidents having only tactical authority. These strategies are crafted by think tanks, reviewed by the Defense and State Departments, as well as relevant intelligence agencies, and the most favorable ones are selected to align with US foreign policy objectives. The president only presents these decisions, rather than making them. The decision-making process is, in fact, a complex mechanism that unfolds in think tanks, government ministries, and ultimately, in the Oval Office. It’s not as if the president can single-handedly make decisions.
Iran has been under pressure, threat, and sanctions from the US in a continuous process, in various forms, including political, economic, and media-related. This behavior has been consistent in all administrations since 1980, with no major difference between Republicans and Democrats.
The Americans are, in no way, on board with the idea of the Islamic Republic becoming a powerful country with robust defense and economic capabilities. Therefore, it is up to us to upgrade our thinking and move away from simplistic and naive management styles.
Iran, Israel poised for mini-war
Mehdi Motahharnia
International relations expert
The dynamics between Iran and the US are more contingent on developments in Tehran than on the changing of the guard in Washington. Trump is now the president-elect of the United States. In reality, there is only a 5% difference between Democratic and Republican administrations, given the bipartisan consensus on Iran policy.
With the Republicans set to take control of the Senate and Congress, their consolidated power will likely accelerate changes in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, anticipating this shift, made a meaningful move by dismissing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and forming a more cohesive cabinet to press ahead with his policies. From now on, the Iran-Israel issue will heat up leading to a mini-war, and US policies will become increasingly aligned with Israeli policies in the coming months.
This could spell trouble for Tehran. Trump would likely intensify his preemptive strikes in the mini-war, launching more targeted and harsher attacks on Iran. Netanyahu will not face pressure from either the US administration or Congress, allowing him to lead a controllable cabinet in Tel Aviv that is fully in sync with Washington. This could make the regional landscape increasingly perilous.
No ‘regime change’ policy
Albert Boghozian
Economic expert
It is no secret that the US presidential election has far-reaching implications for the global economy, and Iran is no exception. As a relatively isolated and closed economy, Iran’s connection to the world is largely limited to its oil exports, making it vulnerable to the outcome of the US election. Since Trump has brought up Iran during his campaign speeches, it is clear that the US election result will have a ripple effect on the Islamic Republic.
During his election campaign, Trump claimed that he would sit down with Saudi Arabia and broker a deal to bring an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict overnight. If these promises were to materialize, they would undoubtedly have a positive impact on Iran’s economy.
Trump did follow through on some of his campaign promises during his first term, including pulling out of the JCPOA. However, that was eight years ago, and Trump is well aware that implementing certain policies comes with a hefty price tag. Nevertheless, it is clear that Trump does not have a “regime change” policy in the works. That being said, during this campaign, he did accuse the Biden administration of giving Iran too much leeway, claiming that the Democrats had freed up Iranian funds, while the Republicans would not have allowed it.