October 7 and return to square one: Why has Israel fallen 70 years behind?
October 7, 2023, is a historic date in the geography of the Middle East. On this day, the military brigades of the Hamas movement broke through the prison walls imposed by the Zionist regime after years of blockade and entered the occupied territories, resulting in over a thousand deaths and a number of captives. However, one year after this event, an analysis of the situation shows that despite Israel’s media manipulations, it remains the main loser on the battlefield.
A Superficial look at a deep battle
Analyzing the events of October 7 and Operation Al-Aqsa Storm with logical tools, though common, can mislead proper conclusions. The complexity of what the people of Gaza have endured over the past decade makes it difficult to fairly judge their actions on October 7. This humanitarian act must be understood through the worldview of Gaza’s people, rather than by conventional standards. It seems that neglecting this key point has caused some to adopt a superficial perspective in analyzing this operation and its outcomes. Claims about the failure of the resistance front due to the martyrdom of its commanders, or comparing the number of martyrs in Gaza to Israeli military casualties, stem from this same superficiality.
The undeniable reality on the ground is the martyrdom of great commanders and leaders within the resistance front. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, was a prominent figure in the country and one of the most influential political and military personalities in the world. Over three decades, he turned Hezbollah into one of the best military-defense groups in the region, causing some of the heaviest retreats and defeats for Israel. Similarly, Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau and a key figure in Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, along with senior commanders like Imad Mughniyeh, Fuad Shukur, Ali Karaki, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, Saleh al-Arouri, and many others from Hezbollah, Hamas, and the IRGC, were martyred. These names and statistics are undeniable, but in assessing their impact on the future of the resistance axis, we must ask whether their martyrdom represents a tactical or strategic loss.
The answer lies in another question: Can these individuals be replaced, even in the long term, and will their martyrdom erase the underlying ideology they upheld? A rational analysis suggests that while the assassination of senior resistance commanders is bitter, it impacts the tactical level only, not the strategic one.
Irrefutable reality in field
Despite Israel having killed more than 40,000 Muslims in the most brutal ways over the past year, some have tried to hold Hamas responsible for these deaths and for triggering the October 7 operations. However, did Israeli extremists not commit genocide against Palestinians before Operation Al-Aqsa Storm or even before Hamas’ existence? Is this the first crime committed by this regime under provocation or compulsion? The truth of this occupation cannot be changed through political and media distortions.
The weakening of the resistance front after standing against the heavily armed Israeli army for a year may not be surprising, but interpreting this temporary weakness as a definitive end to the resistance against occupation is either a miscalculation due to superficial analysis or media propaganda aimed at concealing the real issue.
What do the facts say?
A constant variable in Middle Eastern crises over at least the past five decades is that the Zionist regime:
A) Bears the burden of the oppression faced by the Jewish people and inherits the horrific legacy of the Holocaust, thereby branding anyone who criticizes its “victimhood” as punishable.
B) Israel’s security, bolstered by the West’s high-level deterrence in the form of weapons and equipment, is untouchable and invincible.
However, Operation Al-Aqsa Storm shattered these two solid assumptions. A year later, statistics tell an interesting story.
Israel’s Economy During the War: Global economic institutions estimate that the Zionist regime has spent approximately $50 billion on the war in Gaza over the past year, a figure expected to rise to $66 billion by the end of next year. This amounts to about 12% of the GDP in the occupied territories. This enormous expenditure has created and will continue to create escalating crises in Israel’s economy. A sign of this crisis is the downgrade of Israel’s credit rating following its attack on southern Lebanon. The most credible credit rating agency, Moody’s, announced that Tel Aviv’s lack of an exit strategy from the crisis would worsen public financial problems, potentially increasing Israel’s budget deficit to 15% of its GDP. The IMF’s initial forecast of 3.4% economic growth for Israel has now been reduced to between 1% and 1.9%. Data also indicate a tripling of the budget deficit.
The economic crises in construction, tourism, agriculture, and advanced technology sectors are clearly reflected in all statistics released by international institutions. The number of tourists has dropped to one-tenth, with only 15% of the construction sector’s capacity remaining, and capital outflows have reached $2 billion. Additionally, shipping volume has decreased by 16%, and many foreign and even domestic companies in the occupied territories have shut down.
Security: Who has been weakened?
Israel, as a fabricated and illegitimate entity, has tried for the past 70 years to build itself into a nation-state through military might. Despite support from the West, including nuclear weapons and advanced defense systems like the Iron Dome, this level of backing has yet to ensure Israel’s security. Western media have acknowledged this. For example, The Guardian recently reported that Tehran’s attacks revealed Israel’s missile defense systems are not as impenetrable as advertised.
Similarly, the Washington Post, following the Promise of Truth 2 operation, revealed that satellite images and recorded videos show dozens of Iranian missiles successfully penetrating Israel’s air defense and damaging its military installations.
Psychological and Political Conditions in the Occupied Territories: For months, Israeli and Western media have been suppressing coverage of Israel’s internal unrest and its security forces’ soft repression. However, images and videos from different parts of the occupied lands reveal visible and hidden rage that manifests in unprecedented protests and widespread psychological distress and depression. Statistics show that nearly 100,000 residents near Gaza’s border have been displaced, living in hotels or public housing. Meanwhile, the issue of Israeli captives has become a major source of despair and division between the government and the people. Many inhabitants of the occupied territories feel constant anxiety about attacks, leading to a heightened psychological burden and reminding everyone, particularly settlers, of the pervasive lack of security. This concern has become one of the main reasons for the increasing exodus from the occupied territories.
In the long term, it appears that Israel’s artificial nation-state project in Palestine may collapse from within, even if it doesn’t fall immediately with the aid of US dollars and military support. Thus, Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei’s remarks about Israel being set back 70 years are based on reality and the available data.