Late Hezbollah leader hard to be succeeded
The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the veteran leader of Hezbollah, on Friday marks a watershed moment in the Middle East conflicts. Both Nasrallah and the movement he led have been hardened by decades of successive conflicts within Lebanon, against Israel, and have become powerful, political and social forces with significant regional and local influence.
Over his three decades at the helm of Hezbollah, Nasrallah built a devoted personal following, guided the Shia Muslim movement through a series of transitions, balanced its military ambitions with extensive social welfare systems, established a political faction, and negotiated through various crises that unfolded across the region. He earned adulation from supporters and bitter personal enmity from foes.
A qualified Islamic scholar, effective public speaker, and skilled organizer, Nasrallah acquired leadership experience during the long battle against Israeli forces and their local proxies in southern Lebanon. In 1992, following Israel’s assassination of Sayyed Abbas al-Musawi, he was chosen as the new secretary-general of the movement.
In 2000, Israel’s humiliating and chaotic withdrawal from southern Lebanon earned Hezbollah and Nasrallah widespread admiration across the Middle East and the Muslim world. Six years later, Nasrallah led Hezbollah into a new confrontation with Israel, ordering a retaliatory attack across the disputed border that killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two.
Assessing the consequences of Nasrallah’s assassination is difficult. Pessimists predict a severe escalation of tensions, with Iran seeking revenge for the assassination of a leader who was one of its most valuable allies abroad. Optimists may argue that this has effectively removed a key player from the conflict, paving the way for some form of de-escalation, if not an end to hostilities.
Finding a replacement for Hezbollah will be extremely challenging. Even without the assassination of key lieutenants by Israel in recent months, no one within the popular Lebanese movement possesses Nasrallah’s stature, experience, or regional influence.
Nasrallah’s departure has dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah. However, it would be premature to conclude that the resistance group is coming to an end and that it will forever lose its influence. Hezbollah, with deep roots in Lebanon’s political spectrum, will continue to exert its influence and will carry on its struggle against Israel under the new leadership.