Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump?
Here’s what polls show
The Democratic Party appears to be injected with new hope in the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday to drop out from the race and endorse Kamala Harris. She raised a record-breaking $81 million within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy, and as of Monday night, Harris has secured enough support from delegates at the Democratic National Convention to clinch the Democratic nomination. But even if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee at the convention in August, concerns remain about her ability to compete in a general election against Donald Trump.
By Anna Gordon
Reporter
A slight majority of Americans have a negative opinion of Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight polling. Some 51% of Americans disapprove of Harris to 38% who approve. Former president Donald Trump has a higher disapproval rating at 53%, but 39% of Americans approve of him.
Election polls show Harris lagging behind the former president by a small, but not insurmountable margin of 1.5 percentage points on average, according to an analysis done by the Washington Post of 11 different pollsters. These figures are only a slight improvement on President Joe Biden, who trails Trump by 1.9 percentage points. However, all of these polls were conducted before Biden’s drop-out announcement, and surveys about the potential performance of hypothetical candidates are often inaccurate.
With those caveats, here are what some of the most respected polls show:
ABC News/The Washington Post/Ipsos: +2 Harris
ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos worked together to conduct a poll from July 6 to July 9, interviewing 2,431 US adults. ABC News/The Washington Post polls are ranked second in FiveThirtyEight’s list of best pollsters after the New York Times/Siena College, which has yet to release a national survey on a Harris vs. Trump matchup.
Their survey found that Harris outperformed Trump by 2 percentage points. That is better than Biden, who is polling exactly the same as Trump.
The Economist/YouGov: +5 Trump
A poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov from July 13 to July 16 found that Harris trailed behind Trump by five percentage points, performing worse than Biden, who trailed Trump by two percentage points. The poll sampled 1,582 US adult citizens.
Reuters/Ipsos: +1 Trump
Reuters and Ipsos conducted a poll on July 16, surveying 1,202 adults living in the US in the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump. The survey found that the former US president narrowly edged out Harris by one percentage point. The same poll showed Trump outperforming Biden by three percentage points.
Yahoo! News/
YouGov: +2 Trump
Yahoo! News and YouGov conducted a poll from June 28 to July 1, after Biden’s botched debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump. The poll showed Trump outperforming Harris by two percentage points, the same figure he outperformed Biden by.
The poll also found that while 38% of voters who lean Democrat preferred Harris as the replacement for Biden, 42% believed that someone else would be a better fit for the nomination. The survey polled 1,754 American adults.
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College poll is considered the most accurate in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight’s rankings. While they have yet to release a national survey on Harris vs. Trump, polls in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Virginia from July 9 to July 12 found that Trump led Harris by two percentage points in Pennsylvania but Harris outperformed Trump by five percentage points in Virginia.
The article first appeared on TIME.