Complexity of situation on Israel’s northern front
By Mohammad Bayat
West Asia expert
Israel’s defense minister has reportedly announced the possibility of a ground invasion of Lebanon and the escalation of the war with the Hezbollah resistance group during a meeting with the US special envoy in the region.
It seems that a duality has emerged within the Israeli regime, i.e., the interests of the regime, on the one hand, and the interests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other.
Engaging in a war with Hezbollah is not in favor of the regime, and the opposition side in Israel is against such military action. But, on the other hand, Netanyahu’s personal interests require the continuation of the war because he is worried about his political situation after the war.
There are signs that Netanyahu is preparing to attack Hezbollah. Firstly, the exchange of fire on the northern borders of the occupied territories has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel has targeted civilian areas in southern Lebanon. Also, Hezbollah’s attacks have targeted the regime’s positions deep inside the occupied territories. Secondly, Israel has attempted to assassinate and eliminate Hezbollah’s top military commanders for a long time; and the third sign is the Israeli army’s buildup, which shows that it is preparing to attack southern Lebanon.
It is said that Hezbollah has about 20 trained brigades. Although the Lebanese army is deprived of an air defense system, Hezbollah has managed to create a defense system for itself, which the Israeli army has tried to disable in recent weeks.
The US special envoy in the region, Amos Hochstein, visited Lebanon on Monday and held talks with the country’s Parliament Speaker Nabi Berri, and then traveled to the occupied territories to meet the Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant amid ongoing cease-fire talks on Gaza in Cairo.
It seems that the US envoy is trying to prevent the escalation of another war in the region while seeking to help establish a cease-fire in Gaza. Another war is not in favor of the US and, especially, the Democrats who are at the height of an election race.
On the other hand, even though Hezbollah is ready to defend itself, considering the political and economic situation in Lebanon, the resistance group prefers to not enter a broader war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israel’s political factions, including the opposition ones, do not agree with a ground attack on Lebanon.
While talks on Gaza and the cease-fire are going on, the situation in the northern front is getting more complicated, and these complications have led the US special envoy to visit the region. It seems that a war of wills is happening in the region.
On the one hand, Netanyahu is trying to escalate the war with Hezbollah; on the other hand, the international community and Israel’s factions are attempting to prevent the escalation of the war. Netanyahu probably wants to use the opportunity of a possible cease-fire in Gaza to attack Lebanon. Now we should wait and see which side will win the war of wills.