Economy more impactful on US elections than Gaza
America’s red line is non-involvement in Middle East wars
By Ebrahim Beheshti
Staff writer
The presidential elections in the United States are scheduled to take place in about eight months. Donald Trump, the most prominent Republican candidate, is still preoccupied with the cases raised against him, while the physical condition of Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, has also become a challenge for the Democrats. On the other hand, it is important to consider whether the Gaza conflict and America’s support for Israel will have an impact on the US elections. We have discussed this
matter with Jahanbakhsh Izadi, a university professor and expert on
American affairs.
IRAN DAILY: Donald Trump has been quite newsworthy in the past couple of years. However, can he be considered a contender for the upcoming presidential elections in the United States?
JAHANBAKHSH IZADI: In the US Constitution or the executive procedure of the Constitution, there is no impediment or provision that would prevent Donald Trump from running in the elections so far. The complaints against Trump and the allegations and crimes currently under investigation are not obstacles to his electoral participation. If Trump’s opponents pursue other cases, such as mishandling classified documents, or events like the January 6 attack on the Capitol, which have security implications, it may pose a problem for him, provided that a court decides to convict and disqualify him from running in the elections. However, such an event has not occurred yet, and he is running his election campaign.
Polls show Trump’s position as being relatively strong, with even a three to four percent lead over Biden. Do you think his election campaign is advancing and will maintain this status until the end?
Trump enjoys a good standing among Republicans. Although Nikki Haley managed to defeat Trump in the Washington D.C. primary elections, the overall margin between Trump and Haley is significant, and it doesn’t seem she could pose a challenge to Trump. Trump’s position, according to polls, is currently favorable. However, whether he can maintain this status as the official nominee throughout the election campaign remains uncertain. Nonetheless, he has the experience of two election contests, one of which he won and the other he lost. We’ll have to wait and see.
How do you think the situation with Joe Biden is progressing for the Democrats? Can Biden compete against Trump in this cycle? Is the Democrats’ track record appealing to Americans?
According to polls, Trump and Biden’s popularity are currently very close. However, what may become troublesome for Democrats is Biden’s physical condition and age. Republicans, especially Trump, portray Biden as a forgetful and ailing individual. Trump even mocked Biden, saying he can’t even remember his own name. Nonetheless, physical health is a formal norm in the world of politics, and if some of Biden’s controversial behaviors persist, there’s a possibility of replacing him with another candidate for the election, as names like Michelle Obama, former president Barack Obama’s wife, and Vice President Kamala Harris have been mentioned. However, it should not be forgotten that the outcome of the US elections is usually determined by the so-called swing states. Some states are traditionally blue or red, meaning they are Democratic or Republican supporters. The situation of these swing states is still
unclear.
The war in Gaza and Israel’s actions there, backed by the United States, have sparked considerable criticism within America. Do you think the Gaza conflict could have a noticeable impact on the US elections?
I don’t believe it will have a significant impact. The US government has no issue with confronting and even physically eliminating Palestinian militant groups and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which it labels as terrorist organizations. However, it does not necessarily endorse Israel’s methods of dealing with these groups and its tactics in the Gaza conflict. For instance, it emphasizes the need for distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants, or providing aid to civilians affected by the conflict, etc. Hence, in essence, the approach to dealing with Palestinian militant groups is not different between Israel and the US.
America has set a red line for itself, which is not getting involved in another direct war in the Middle East, a line it has managed to uphold so far. Therefore, the Gaza war will not have an impact on US policy.
While the Gaza conflict may not affect US policy, is it insignificant to the American public? Large protests criticizing Israel and supporting Palestine have taken place in American cities, and it seems that parts of the American populace oppose unconditional support for Israel.
In the American electoral scene, the primary influencing factor is the economy. Years ago, when a supporter told Bill Clinton he won because he dressed well, Clinton replied, “Idiot! What won it for me was the economy.” So, the primary issue is the economy, and other issues, such as the Gaza conflict, serve as catalysts for electoral debates and discussions. Additionally, disgruntled segments of the public are well aware that the Republican Party’s relationship with Israel is much stronger than that of the Democrats. Therefore, the Gaza conflict does not have the potential to become the main issue in the US elections. Moreover, the fact that the US has not engaged in direct warfare in the Middle East thus far is considered an achievement for the Democrats. As you can see, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue, and nuclear and regional tensions with Iran persist. Despite reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran’s nuclear program, the US has remained silent for now, trying to control and manage crises and tensions. This is because it does not want to engage in a military conflict with Iran.