Israeli PM’s looming political predicament
By Charlotte Lawson
Reporter
As fighting in Gaza passes the 100-day mark, making it the country’s longest conflict since the 1948 war, many Israelis are expressing growing concerns about cabinet accountability in light of the security and intelligence failures leading up to October 7, the increasingly dire captive situation, and the economic toll of the war.
It all spells particular trouble for Netanyahu, who’s long branded himself as “Mr. Economy” and “Mr. Security”. While some are resolute in their continued support for Netanyahu and his Likud party, many are rethinking their vote or doubling down on their opposition to Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. His day of reckoning may come sooner than Bibi had hoped — even as he urges the country to first wait out the war.
“Going to elections would be irresponsible and would badly halt the war effort,” Netanyahu said on Thursday night, during a press conference at the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv. “The ones who are hoping for this, and for all the other things we hear in the TV studios night after night, are Hamas and also its backer Iran. We won’t give this to them. We will bring complete victory.”
Yet many Israelis — on the left and right — want cabinet accountability. Crowds of demonstrators have taken to the streets of Israel’s major cities in recent days to demand that the cabinet set a date for new elections now. Others want to head to the ballot box as soon as the conflict comes to an end. In a December survey by the Israeli Democracy Institute (IDI), an independent research center, 69 percent of respondents — including a majority of right-wing voters — called for new elections immediately after the war.
“I always chose Netanyahu, and I am from the right side of the political spectrum, but it will be hard for me to choose him again. I want a change,” Mordechai Sasson, the owner of a produce shop in Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda market, said in an interview. “Everybody should go home, not only Netanyahu.”
The relative quiet of Mahane Yehuda, the holy city’s largest shuk, underscores the financial pain the tense security situation is inflicting on many Israelis. Where hundreds of shoppers typically brave crowds to buy meat, spices, fresh bread, and local produce, vendors outnumbered customers on the weekday morning of my visit.
Shlomo Nissan, a produce vendor and longtime Likud supporter, said the cabinet is at fault, adding that he has no plans to back Bibi’s party again in the next Israeli elections. “The army and the security forces do everything they can to prevent attacks, but it’s not always 100 percent, and the situation is very delicate. It’s very complicated for me as a business owner. You can see it’s Wednesday morning and usually packed with people, but it’s not the case right now,” he said. “It’s a mess.”
The longer the war goes on, the worse the economic repercussions are likely to be, and Netanyahu recently predicted the fighting could stretch into 2025. But along with souring public opinion about the cabinet’s failures pre-October 7, cracks in the War Cabinet are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Days after the initial Hamas attack, centrist lawmakers joined with the prime minister to form an emergency cabinet in a show of solidarity. The move elevated National Unity party leader Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff and onetime defense minister, to Netanyahu’s Cabinet. Together with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot — an observer in the Cabinet without a vote — Gantz has sought to exert the opposition’s influence on the war’s management.
Behind-the-scenes divisions are now regularly coming to the fore. While Netanyahu used to host press conferences alongside Gantz, the premier now tends to appear before reporters solo. Reports of War Cabinet meetings devolving into screaming matches headline Israeli media.
For many Israelis, it’s Netanyahu’s continued reluctance to take responsibility for October 7 that’s perhaps most damning. Since the war’s start, the prime minister has repeatedly obfuscated when asked whether he’s at fault for the catastrophic intelligence lapse that enabled the Hamas invasion, subtly shifting blame to the Israeli military for the oversight. In a since-deleted post on X in late October, Netanyahu seemed to criticize the heads of Israel’s military and security services for failing to detect and inform him of the impending attack. Netanyahu later apologized for the remarks, but the episode was just one in a series of political clashes his cabinet has had with the IDF as the country has uncomfortable conversations about who’s at fault.
Earlier this month, a high-level meeting of ministers reportedly erupted after IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi informed lawmakers of plans to launch an internal probe into the military’s failures in the lead-up to October 7. The IDF’s decision to initiate an inquiry puts pressure on the cabinet to do the same, which could have electoral consequences for Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s continued efforts to distance himself from the military may backfire with other voters. A survey conducted in late-October found that Jewish Israelis’ trust in the IDF had actually grown in the aftermath of Hamas’ attack — from 84.5 percent to 87 percent — making it far and away one of the most trusted institutions in the country. By contrast, just 20.5 percent of Jewish Israeli respondents said they had trust in Netanyahu’s Cabinet.
At the same time, the question of the estimated 132 remaining captives—105 alive, 27 dead—continues to hang over the cabinet’s head. Family members of the captive Israelis have been among the loudest voices calling for Netanyahu’s resignation, holding weekly demonstrations in cities across the country. On Thursday night, family members of captives blocked Tel Aviv’s main highway to protest the cabinet’s lack of progress toward a deal to secure their release.
Brenda Donvi, the owner of a boutique in Jerusalem’s elite Moshava neighborhood, said in an interview, “The greatest evil that Israel has is a self-enemy who is taking the country hostage for his own interests and his own benefits to stay in power. [Netanyahu] will do whatever he has to do to stay in power, in my opinion.”
The full article first appeared in The Dispatch.