Is Israel losing the war against Hamas?
By Leila Nezirevic
Analyst
In a complete departure from the Israeli narrative, Dan Halutz, a former Israeli military chief, has suggested that Israel has lost the war against the Palestinian resistance group Hamas in the besieged Gaza Strip. He criticized the current Israeli military and political strategy, expressing concerns over the future of Israel in an interview aired on local broadcaster Channel 7.
Israel can only win this war if it succeeds in destroying Hamas. However, so far, it is proving very “difficult” to even dislodge it.
Hamas is much more than a movement; it is an idea, and the fundamental problem is that one cannot destroy an idea, according to Paul Rogers, an emeritus professor of peace studies at the University of Bradford.
Destroying Hamas would not solve the problem for Israel, as even if they appear to destroy it, then “it will just rise in a different form in maybe two or three years’ time, maybe a little bit more, but it doesn’t solve the underlying problem of the position of Palestinians. And they are not going to go away,” Rogers told Anadolu.
The professor argued that the war between the Israeli military and Hamas is a battle of time, as the Israelis only have a certain amount of time in which they can defeat Hamas because otherwise, the pressure from the international community, and particularly from the United States, will force Israel to bring the war to an end.
The sheer loss of life on the Palestinian side is causing “huge problems” internationally for Tel Aviv, said Rogers, pointing out that Israel is slowly but steadily losing support, possibly even in the US, as since the beginning of the war on Gaza, Israeli forces have in their brutal military campaign killed over 22,000 Palestinians and wounded over 56,000.
“So, the issue is that you can’t defeat a group like Hamas in the first place. But you can’t keep on trying, either, as the patience of even the closest ally would run out.”
“This is why the whole issue is, in a sense of time, urgent, and time is against the Israelis on this,” said Rogers, who is also a global security consultant at Oxford Research Group (ORG).
Israel spreading
false narrative
Tel Aviv, however, is still spreading a false “narrative of a severely weakened Hamas” by claiming that the war in northern Gaza is mainly completed and that victory in southern Gaza would follow soon.
“The official narrative has been that Hamas is weakened, but in reality, the IDF’s doctrine of massive force is falling,” said Rogers, referring to the Israeli army. He raised doubts about the idea that Israel is making any significant progress in the war.
At one point, official casualty figures showed more than 460 Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza, Israel, and the occupied West Bank and about 1,900 injured. However, other reputable sources suggested much higher numbers. Even a department within the Israeli Ministry of Defense which deals with rehabilitation reported different figures to the ministry, giving a figure of around 5,000 injuries, whereas the official line was closer to 2,500. According to the rehabilitation department, over 2,000 military personnel had been registered as disabled since October 7 — with 58% of all those it had treated suffering from severe injuries to their hands and feet, which is a lot higher than the official figure.
“So, there are actually differences within the military itself as to the numbers that they’re releasing,” and one suspects that in fact, “the number of injuries is very much higher than is being said,” Rogers noted.
Hamas is fighting on its own territory with thousands of young fighters prepared and ready to die, which is a huge advantage for the military group, many analysts have suggested. This makes it “extremely difficult” for a more conventionally organized country to defeat such groups.
Rogers pointed out that Hamas is “certainly more efficient” in some of its use of weapons in current circumstances than what analysts would have expected.
As far as its tunnel network is concerned, it is even more extensive and more organized than it was assumed by the Israelis, he said, adding that Hamas has succeeded in hiding captives despite a very high level of surveillance and intelligence on the Israeli side.
The Israelis have developed airpower to a very sophisticated level, but whenever Israel sent in ground troops to Lebanon, for instance, they found it much more difficult to handle paramilitary groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas on the ground. It would be even more so difficult if part of the fighting was to happen underground, Rogers asserted, adding there is a suspicion that Hezbollah has developed a similar kind of system of underground tunnels in southern Lebanon, which, according to him, will be very tough to handle.
The reality is that any modern army fighting this kind of guerrilla war, in an urban environment with many ruins and many obstacles around, “is going to find it very difficult,” he said, adding that this is as true for the Israelis as it was for US special forces and others in recent wars including Russia in terms of its fighting in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.
Israel unable to win war
Yitzhak Brick, a major general (reserve) in the Israeli army and former ombudsman for the occupation forces, raised an alarm months ago that Hamas could launch an attack on Israel and that the country must prepare for a multi-front war, given the situation on the Lebanese border, but his claims were dismissed by the defense establishment and the political leadership.
He referred to Hamas as equipped, trained fighters who will cross the border on foot and attack with an aim to take back Palestinian land and conquer settlements.
Brick warned that the Israeli army has turned into a primarily air-based military, unable to win a war and fight effectively on the ground. He accused the leadership of completely trying to avoid losing on the battlefield, suggesting that this “completely loses the deterrence of the army and the ability to win the war”. “We have lost the ability to field an effective army and have become a one-dimensional aerial power that cannot win a war on its own.”
The current situation of the land forces “is tragic; they are not ready for war,” he told local broadcaster Channel 12 last May. “The truth is that an imaginary reality has been created by the general staff and spread throughout the army. The soldiers have lost their motivation and fighting spirit in recent years, and many are not ready to go into battle,” he said, adding that technology, which Israel heavily relies on, is not enough to win the war.
Things however are not looking that great for the Israeli Air Force either, as former Israeli Air Force chief Major General Amikam Norkin warned last year that the country no longer enjoys unfettered superiority and freedom of action in Lebanon’s skies, stressing that this reality was apparent to the Israeli military after Hezbollah began manufacturing its own drones, he told public broadcaster KAN.
Brick essentially suggested that Israel is unable to win the war against Hamas alone. But according to Rogers, it is unlikely that the United States will want to get involved on the ground to help the Israeli army because they have experienced problems with this kind of warfare themselves when fighting in the Middle East. Consequently, the US Army would be “really strongly opposed to this and would resist any attempt to do so,” and in this sense, “Israel is in this on its own as far as the ground troops are concerned,” said Rogers.
This article first appeared on Anadolu Agency.