An exhausted army in Gaza
Protracted urban war not in favor of Israel
By Ebrahim Beheshti
Staff writer
Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to international pressure for a cease-fire in Gaza reflects the failure of the Israeli army to achieve its declared objectives. The destruction of Hamas and the liberation of Israeli captives were the two main declared goals of Netanyahu’s cabinet and the army in the Gaza war.
However, according to media reports, the war in Gaza is intensifying, indicating that Hamas remains resilient. On Friday, the Israeli army issued a shocking statement 70 days into the war, revealing that not only had they failed to free a single captive in an operation, but three prisoners were mistakenly targeted and killed.
Madness of war
The madness of war seems to have engulfed the Israeli regime, bringing it to a state of desperation. Global public opinion is increasingly against the continuation of the war and Israel’s crimes. The tone of Western governments supporting Israel has also gradually changed, and ending the war has become a public demand contrary to Israel’s wishes. Two cease-fire resolutions have been passed with a majority of votes in the United Nations General Assembly. The proposed cease-fire resolution in the UN Security Council received 13 affirmative votes, with only one negative vote from the United States (Veto) and one abstention from the UK.
Internal pressure on Netanyahu’s cabinet has intensified. Former prime minister and current leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, told Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper: Netanyahu can no longer remain in the prime minister’s position, and elections may be held under war conditions.
The families of captives are also exerting pressure on Netanyahu. Lior Peri, whose 79-year-old father is a Hamas captive, said at a protest gathering of captive families on Saturday: Israel must propose something to Hamas that it cannot reject, whether it’s a cease-fire, an exchange, or whatever is necessary. The cabinet has done nothing.
However, Netanyahu’s hardline cabinet seems to have no practical initiative other than continuing and intensifying the war in the face of this difficult domestic and international situation. Nevertheless, the question on many minds, both in the occupied territories and around the world, is whether the prolonged war has yielded tangible results for Israel. Will Netanyahu and the Israeli army achieve their goals by continuing the war?
Hamas, an unbeatable army
Earlier analyses had suggested that the prolongation of the war would be detrimental to Israel. Former Lebanese foreign minister, Adnan Mansour, in an interview with Mehr news agency in Iran, had stated that the ongoing military operations in Gaza were imposing a heavy cost on Tel Aviv. Forty days into the war, he said, “The Zionist regime spends $260 million a day in the war against Gaza, and, based on this, over $7.5 billion has been spent in this war, and it cannot afford to continue this war for a long time.” Some analysts also pointed to a reduction in foreign investment in Israel, insecurity consequences in the occupied land, and an increase in reverse migration from Israel to other parts of the world.
However, what is happening on the battlefield appears to be more painful and perhaps unexpectedly challenging for Israelis than the anticipated economic and social consequences of the prolonged war. Israeli army casualties exceed expectations. According to the Israeli newspaper Maariv, the Hamas movement seems to be an endless (unbeatable) army, and there is still a long way to resolve the battle in the Gaza Strip.
On Friday, when three Israeli captives who had apparently escaped from Hamas were targeted by soldiers in the Shejaiya neighborhood in northern Gaza, more realities about the Israeli army became apparent: Realities that vividly show the consequences of the prolonged war and the effects of facing a classic army against a guerrilla organization in urban warfare.
This situation is evident in the statements of the Israeli army spokesperson, who, on the one hand, acknowledges the preparedness of Hamas forces and their military tactics, and, on the other hand, highlights the disregard of Israeli soldiers for violating the principles of war.
Violation of war rules
The spokesperson of the Israeli army told CNN that Israeli soldiers violated war laws; they should not have opened fire near captives… Hamas uses all sorts of tricks to confuse our soldiers and kill them, which played a role in the deaths of the kidnapped. Hamas tries to use loudspeakers broadcasting in Hebrew to lure our soldiers into ambushes.
The more significant admission of this military official is the acknowledgment of the exhaustion of the army: Our soldiers suffer from fatigue and the burdens of war, and some of them have been in battle for a month and a half.
Avi Dichter, a former head of the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet or Shabak) and the current Agriculture Minister in Netanyahu’s cabinet, said to Channel 12 that Israel has paid very high costs in the Gaza war and military operations there are very challenging. Israel’s use of this amount of force in a war and the unprecedented volume of bombs is remarkable.
On November 20, The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that Israel’s quick decision to start ground operations in Gaza prevented sufficient planning to minimize the risk of civilian casualties, but what it ensured was a high number of deaths among non-combatants.
However, the prolonged war and the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza, reaching around 19,000 people, do not guarantee the realization of Netanyahu’s and the Israeli army’s objectives. General Kenneth McKenzie Jr., the retired head of US Central Command, claimed that Israel is achieving its goals, but he emphasized that, strategically, it may not necessarily be in Israel’s favor.
Friendly fire
It seems natural that fatigue resulting from the prolongation of the war, in addition to increasing casualties for the Israeli army, might also result in more violence due to failures and violations of customary rules of war, lack of necessary focus for planning, and mistakenly attacking its own forces. On December 12, the Israeli army announced in a statement that 20 Israeli military personnel had been killed by their own fire in the Gaza Strip. According to the army’s statement, the reasons for the deaths of these soldiers include the large number of forces in the field, the duration of the war, fatigue, lack of operational discipline, and lack of coordination among the forces, among other reasons. The Times of Israel also wrote 13 of these 20 soldiers targeted by their own forces were killed due to the mistakes of fighter jets or tanks. One soldier was killed when a comrade accidentally shot him, two were killed in Israeli explosions, two in collisions with armored vehicles, and two were mistakenly targeted. According to Israeli military analysts, severe fatigue of the soldiers after about two months and a few weeks of war and not adhering to military rules are additional reasons.
However, the incident of the killing of three Israeli captives in the north of Gaza reveals the psychological state and vulnerability of the Israeli army further.
The prolongation of the war and the failure to achieve declared objectives have also caused psychological problems for Israeli soldiers. Maariv newspaper wrote that grief, sorrow, pain, and problems related to sleep and breathing are seen in soldiers. Soldiers returning from the war suffer from mental and physical problems. With the advancement of the war, which is likely to continue for a long time, the level of damage and pain of the military will increase.
Unprecedented losses for Israeli army
Now, since the ground invasion into Gaza, the remarkable and unprecedented statistics of Israeli army casualties testify to the claim that time has not been in favor of Israel. According to BBC Persian, the number of Israeli military personnel killed after the start of the ground operation and entry into Gaza until December 16 has reached 121. The Israeli army has confirmed the death of 426 military personnel from the beginning of the war on October 7 to December 18.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, on December 18, reported, citing Israeli military sources, that more than 5,000 Israeli soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war. However, Ariel Shimon, an Israeli journalist, believes that Israel does not disclose the true casualty figures. According to this Israeli journalist, the actual number of casualties is more than three times what has been announced.
According to military experts, Israel’s main strategy in its various conflicts over the past seven decades has been “surprise” and striking in a short time. However, on October 7, Israel itself fell victim to Hamas’s surprise attack. After that, due to Hamas’s resistance, it could not quickly achieve its goals as in the past. Therefore, the prolongation of the war, especially in a confined region and in the style of guerrilla and urban warfare, has made the Israeli army vulnerable. On December 16, one of the Israeli commanders who participated in the 2014 war told Reuters, that the broader range of ongoing ground operations in Gaza means the presence of more forces on the ground, allowing for defensive tactics and inflicting more casualties on the invading forces for Hamas.