Israel will not return to pre-October 7
“It is quite possible that the war in Gaza will be the first war in Israel’s history that the army has fought and lost. That loss would be catastrophic for Israel and deeply damaging to the United States,” wrote Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Over the course of more than 70 years, the Israeli army tried to portray an invincible image of itself, disregarding the rights of the Palestinian people and ignoring UN resolutions. Some ground realities have contributed to this image, including its victories in the three wars with Arab countries and its harsh, inhumane treatment of Palestinians.
According to Mohammad Javad Zarif, former Iranian foreign minister, alongside the notion of invincibility, Israelis have also presented themselves as victims over the past seven decades. This image of victimhood is based on the claim that Jews were massacred in World War II as part of the Holocaust.
Until October 7, everything seemed to be in favor of the regime. The Palestinian issue had gradually been sidelined, and Israel had moved from normalizing relations with a few Arab countries to the main stage of normalization, that is establishing political relations with Saudi Arabia. The well-equipped Israeli army with its cutting-edge intelligence and communication equipment had seemingly provided a sense of security to the leaders of this regime. They believed there was no threat to the regime and no obstacle to pursuing its aggressive goals.
However, on the morning of October 7, the myth of Israel’s invincibility shattered. The Operation Al-Aqsa Storm by Hamas dealt a severe blow to Israel’s credibility and position. On October 15, the Hebrew-language newspaper Haaretz wrote that the strategic blow inflicted on Israel by the Qassam Brigades on October 7 was a thousand times more dangerous than the defeat in the 1973 war. The Al-Aqsa Storm had a significant and important difference from previous confrontations between Palestinian resistance groups and Israelis. Unlike previous cases, this operation took place inside the occupied territories. This means that Hamas, as a lone resistance group, overcame the deterrent power of Israel and penetrated into the occupied territories.
Tzachi Hanegbi, the head of Israel’s National Security Council, admitted a week after the operation that Israel received a painful blow. “I made a mistake when I said Hamas was deterred after Operation Guardian of the Walls,” he added.
Some consider the high volume of destructive attacks by Israel on Gaza as an attempt to compensate for the heavy defeat on October 7. Seyyed Reza Sadrolhosseini, an expert on West Asian affairs, emphasized in an interview with Iran Daily that Israel, in order to compensate for its historical defeat on October 7 and restore its shattered dominance and lost credibility among the Israelis, resorted to massacring the people of Gaza.
In addition to enduring this heavy defeat, the Israeli regime has also suffered another defeat in the media while trying to highlight its victimhood. The Israeli narrative and propaganda quickly lost its credibility. As the attacks intensified, Gaza was left devastated, hospitals were bombed, women and children and journalists were massacred, and water and electricity were cut off, the true face of Israel was shown to the world more than ever before. The situation unfolded in a way contrary to Israel’s desires. While the European and American heads of state continued to support Netanyahu and his hardline actions, the streets of Washington, Paris, London, Berlin, and others were filled with people who had come together in unprecedented numbers to support the people of Gaza and the freedom of Palestine, demanding an end to the war and a ceasefire.
Stephen Walt, a renowned political theorist, wrote in Foreign Policy that “sympathy will only increase the longer the war goes on and the more Palestinian civilians are killed, especially when the US government and some prominent European politicians are leaning so heavily to one side.”
Benjamin Netanyahu had said at the beginning stages of the Israeli assault on Gaza that this war would change the future course of events in the region. But will these changes be in Israel’s favor? The evidence and indications point to the contrary.
Israel is losing its credibility more than ever before, and the more it continues its aggressions and crimes, its internal and international vulnerabilities become more apparent. Bloomberg magazine, maintaining that the war costing Israel’s economy about $260 million per day, wrote that the war against Hamas became “more expensive for Israel than first predicted and is putting a strain on public
finances”.
Thierry Meyssan, a French writer and researcher and author of the book “9/11: The Big Lies” said that this will be a very deadly and endless war. He added that Israel can restore the order in its favor, but it can never win.
Therefore, what is evident is that the process of normalizing relations between Islamic countries and Israel has been suspended indefinitely. Contrary to the myth of invincibility, 1,400 Israelis have been killed in just one day, and over 200 have been taken captive. The global public opinion is more opposed to Israel’s brutal actions than ever before. The narrative of what is happening in Palestine has moved out of the hands of the monopoly of media outlets that are aligned with Israel, and the issue of Palestine has become central. For the foreseeable future, Israel will not be a safe and attractive destination for global tourists. The shadow of new security threats and the prospect of new conflicts weigh heavily on the Israelis. All of this indicates that the conditions for Israel will not return to what they were before October 7.