On the occasion of Iran’s Defense Industry Day
Drone on demand
Iran Daily examines how defense industry can both ensure security and bring in revenues
By Ebrahim Beheshti
Staff writer
Page 1
Iran fought asymmetric warfare
A year after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the new Iranian government found itself confronting the aggression of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. With unwavering resilience, Iran held steadfast against this onslaught for eight years, ultimately reclaiming all its territories from Iraqi incursion.
Throughout these tumultuous years, a stark contrast in capabilities and military resources between the two adversaries became unmistakably evident. A phrase frequently echoed by Iranian officials, particularly those within the military, encapsulated the essence of this disparity: “We couldn’t even buy barbed wire.” While this expression might have held a touch of exaggeration, it frankly conveyed a harsh reality. Its consequences reverberated on the battlefield, where one side wielded state-of-the-art weapons procured from global corners, while the other – Iran – remained deprived of such opportunities.
Now 35 years since the war came to an end, the threat of the Iraqi dictator has vanished into history’s pages, and Iran’s military landscape has dramatically transformed. Many of the very nations that once fueled Iraq’s war machine now harbor concerns over Iran’s regional and global military potency. Today, Iran’s reputation for missile and drone capabilities has rippled worldwide. Assertions by Iranian officials and foreign media have propagated claims of a long queue of potential customers seeking Iranian drones.
Israel’s former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, has said that Iran is negotiating to sell advanced weapons such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and precision-guided missiles (PGMs) to “no less than 50 different countries”. This assertion may carry a tinge of exaggeration, but in October, Major General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, a military advisor to Iran’s Leader, disclosed, “Today, we are at a point where 22 countries are requesting to buy drones from Iran.”
Major General Mohammad Baqeri, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, substantiated Iran’s growing drone capabilities, elevating it into the ranks of the world’s top five drone powers.
“Our drones excel in range and performance across more than 15 functional domains, as well as accuracy, durability, and mission capability. These features have secured our drones a prestigious global standing. The swirling rumors concerning the use of Iranian drones in the Ukrainian conflict, though shrouded in falsehoods, served as a testament to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s influence, importance, and elevated status in the realm of drone warfare,” Baqeri has stated.
Iranian drones outdo foreign ones
The prowess exhibited by Iranian pilotless aircraft stands validated even by the Americans themselves. Farzin Nadimi, an arms expert, in a report by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) underlined this fact: “Despite the challenges, the performance of Iranian drones is at par with the competition, and in some respects, even better.”
According to the USIP report, “by the fall of 2022, Tehran had also exported drones or drone technology to at least five countries on four continents as well as to at least seven proxy militias in the Middle East”.
Moreover, the National Interest magazine, based in Washington D.C., acknowledged in a report that the Western sanctions, while intended to stifle Iran’s progress, ultimately proved futile in deterring its ascent as a dominant player in the realm of drones. The report accentuated that “Iranian drones are cheaper than their Western counterparts and have proven to be effective on the battlefield”.
Thus, Iran’s emergence as a contender in the drone market defied the expectations tied to Western sanctions.
Mohajer-6 drones in the Horn of Africa
The features garnering media acclaim and receiving validation from foreign military experts have laid the groundwork for the rising global demand for Iranian drones.
“The fact that newer drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are now being seen in places like the Horn of Africa shows that countries see them as a potential game-changer,” he added, referring to an advanced Iranian drone claimed to have a range of about 125 miles and the ability to carry precision-guided munitions.
Seth Frantzman, an Israeli defense analyst and drone expert has told New York Times that: “The fact that newer drones, such as the Mohajer-6, are now being seen in places like the Horn of Africa shows that countries see them as a potential game-changer.”
Frantzman was apparently referring to media reports that Ethiopia has received Mohajer-6 drones.
But the impact of the drones was striking — pummeling Tigrayan rebels and their supply convoys as they pushed down a major highway toward the capital, Addis Ababa. The rebels have since retreated roughly 270 miles by road to the north, erasing months of battlefield gains.
In November 2021, as Tigrayan rebels inched toward Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, they were pounded with a relentless barrage of drone attacks that halted their advance. According to the New York Times, “the impact of the drones was striking.”
Tigrayan rebels reportedly took to social media to communicate their grievances in Persian, which was an explicit nod to Iran.
Drones have predominantly fortified Iran’s defensive capabilities and their usage was initially limited to bolstering Iran’s allied factions in the Middle East such as southern Lebanon and Gaza which effectively altered the military equilibrium in favor of allied groups. Nevertheless, faced with the US policy of maximum pressure, aimed at isolating Iran and severing its revenue streams, Tehran turned to expanding the export of weapons, particularly drones, beyond the Middle East.
The above-mentioned USIP report mirrored this evolution, noting: “By 2022, Iran’s drones had altered the strategic balance – to varying degrees – in war zones in Europe, Africa and Asia.
“They have made considerable impact on any battlefield they have appeared in,” the USIP report said, citing Nadimi.
This succinctly encapsulates Iran’s trajectory from regional drone influence to a burgeoning worldwide force to be reckoned with.
Iranian technology in Tajikistan
As reported by USIP, Iran’s largest exports included long-range Shahed-136 suicide drones and shorter-range Mohajer-6 attack drones “provided to Russia, beginning in August 2022, for use in Ukraine”. However, Iran vehemently maintains that the drone sale predates the Ukrainian crisis and was part of the enduring military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.
In an intriguing twist, Tajikistan, nestled to the northeast of Iran, has also voiced its interest in procuring Iranian drones. As part of efforts to bolster joint military collaboration, Tajikistan last year launched the production line of Iran’s Ababil-2 reconnaissance and attack drones in its capital Dushanbe, during a ceremony attended by high-ranking military officials from both nations.
Major General Baqeri, Iran’s top military official, told the ceremony that Iran had reached a position to “export military equipment to its allied and friendly nations, a move aimed at enhancing security and maintain lasting peace, in addition to satisfying domestic demands.”
Flexing muscles in US ‘backyard’
The canvas of global drone utilization paints a diverse picture, as underscored by the USIP. According to its report, Sudan deployed Iran’s Ababil-3 against the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and other rebels in Darfur “as early as 2008”. It also claimed that: “Around 2010, Venezuela started assembling Mohajer-2 surveillance drones.”
Meanwhile, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria have all embraced Iranian drones, harnessing their potential for varied purposes. The Asia Times claimed two years ago that Iran had supplied the Myanmar military with weaponry, including drones.
In the Latin American theater, Venezuela, an amicable nation to Iran, announced in 2012 its collaboration with Iran to produce drones. This collaborative effort bore fruit when, in 2022, Venezuela unveiled Iran-assembled drones during its military parade. Originally christened “Mohajer-2” in Iran, these drones now bear the name “Antonio José de Sucre” in Venezuela.
The allure of Iranian drones transcends Venezuela’s borders in the US “backyard” – namely Latin America. On July 20, Bolivian Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo inked an agreement centered on security and defense cooperation during his visit to Tehran.
The development sparked criticism from Argentina, prompting Novillo to affirm Bolivia’s intent to tap into Iran’s drone technology. Brushing off Argentina’s worries and addressing domestic opposition, Novillo labeled them as “exaggerated.”
He firmly stated that Bolivia seeks Iranian drone technology to secure its borders and combat drug trafficking.
Stunning admission
The essence of Iran’s defensive prowess found unequivocal affirmation from Marine General Kenneth McKenzie, the former commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM)), during a hearing before the US House of Representatives’ Armed Services Committee. In response to an inquiry regarding America’s retention of air superiority in the Middle East, McKenzie acknowledged that “for the first time since the Korean War (1950s), we are operating without complete air superiority,” because of small and medium-sized armed Iranian drones.
This transformation has not escaped the attention of the New York Times, which delved into Iran’s strategy of exporting its military hardware. The newspaper said such experts have emerged as a significant revenue stream and a channel for political influence for Iran.
According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the global military drone market held a valuation of around $11.3 billion in 2021. Projections anticipate this figure to reach $26.1 billion by 2028. Nations such as Iran and Turkey possess a relative edge over their European counterparts in drone production, leveraging this advantage to create cost-efficient UAVs. Assuming Iran can substantiate the superior quality of its drones, it stands to reason that its earnings from UAV sales could potentially hit $6.5 billion by 2028.
The 2015 nuclear deal played a pivotal role in reshaping Iran’s military landscape. With the termination of the UN Security Council’s arms embargo in October 2020 after 13 years, Iran was able to engage in buying and selling conventional weaponry. Thus, Iranian drones now wear a dual mantle: a robust deterrent against foreign threats and a conduit for bringing revenues.