IMF revises up Iran’s GDP projection for 2023
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook Report, revised its forecast for Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2023, expecting the country’s economy to grow 2.5 percent this year.
The fund had estimated the Islamic Republic’s GDP growth at two percent for 2023, in its previous report published in April, according to img.org.
The entity also revised its estimation for Iran’s economic growth in 2022, putting the country’s GDP growth for last year at 3.5 percent. In the April report, Iran’s economic growth for 2022 was calculated at 2.5 percent.
The 3.5 percent growth of Iran’s economy in 2022 is equal to the average growth of the world economy this year.
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to three percent in both 2023 and 2024.
While the forecast for 2023 is modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO), it remains weak by historical standards.
The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.
In most economies, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability. Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthen financial supervision and risk monitoring.
Should market strains materialize, countries should provide liquidity promptly while mitigating the possibility of moral hazard. They should also build fiscal buffers, with the composition of fiscal adjustment ensuring targeted support for the most vulnerable.
Improvements to the supply side of the economy would facilitate fiscal consolidation and a smoother decline of inflation toward target levels.
As announced by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew four percent in the past Iranian year (ended on March 20). The CBI also put the GDP growth at 3.5 percent, excluding oil.
According to CBI data, the GDP growth was positive in all four quarters of the previous year, so that from the first quarter to the end of the fourth quarter of the said year, the economic growth rate of the country was 1.9 percent, 3.9 percent, 4.9 percent, and 5.3 percent, respectively.