Russia on path to normal life after deal ends Wagner mutiny
Russia is slowly returning to normal life after heavily armed Russian mercenaries on Saturday night withdrew from the southern Russian city of Rostov under a deal that defused an unprecedented challenge to the Russian leadership and halted their rapid advance on Moscow.
The Moscow stock exchange, banks and financial institutions are expected to operate as usual today, Reuters quoted Russia’s Central Bank as saying on Sunday.
However, Moscow’s mayor had declared it a non-working day when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was leading his Wagner forces towards Moscow.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin had on Saturday asked people to refrain from trips around the city because of a counter-terrorism operation.
Fighters of the Wagner group returned to their bases, in return for guarantees for their safety, and the leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will move to Belarus, according to the agreement mediated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The mutiny was later aborted in a deal that spared Prigozhin and his mercenaries from facing criminal charges. The deal also exiled Prigozhin to Belarus.
Moscow’s non-working order remains in place even though the mutiny was aborted.
“On June 26, trading and settlement on all Moscow Exchange markets will be conducted as usual, including all trading periods and instruments,” Moscow Exchange said in a statement.
SPB Exchange, Russia’s second-largest bourse, said it would also be operating as normal.
The central bank said banks should ensure the continuous and smooth operation of Russia’s financial markets.
The country’s Federal Road Agency urged residents of the Moscow region on Sunday to refrain from travelling along the M-4 “Don” major expressway until 10 a.m.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not made public comments since the deal was struck to de-escalate the crisis.
State television said Putin would attend a meeting of Russia’s Security Council this coming week, without elaborating.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the deal that sent Wagner fighters back to their camps was aimed at avoiding confrontation and bloodshed.
Russia back in investors’ focus
Investors were watching for ripple effects from the aborted mutiny in Russia, with some expecting a move into safe havens such as U.S. government bonds and the dollar when markets open later on Sunday.
After Saturday’s events some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and on commodities prices, given that Russia is a major energy and grains supplier.
“It certainly remains to be seen what happens in the next day or two, but if there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.
“Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain,” particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
“If the uncertainty escalates, you’re going to see Treasuries get a bid, gold will get a bid and the Japanese yen tends to gain in situations like this,” Krosby said, mentioning typical safe-haven assets that investors buy when risks rise.
Early signs of mutiny
According to U.S. media on Saturday, U.S. spy agencies picked up signs days ago that mercenary chief Prigozhin was preparing to rise up against Russia’s defense establishment, AFP reported.
Intelligence officials conducted briefings at the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in nuclear-armed Russia a full day before it unfolded, the Washington Post and New York Times reported.
Spy agencies first began tracking indications that Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary force intended to move against the Russian military leadership in mid-June, the Post said.
The Times said the information was both solid and alarming by mid-week, leading to the flurry of briefings.
Globally attention
The aborted mutiny has sparked attention globally with supporting or opposing reactions. It revived an old fear in Washington about what happens to Russia’s nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval.
Images of tanks on Russian streets brought to mind the failed 1991 coup by communist hardliners that raised concerns about the security of the Soviet nuclear arsenal and the possibility of a rogue commander stealing a warhead, said former U.S. intelligence officials.
“The IC (intelligence community) will be super-focused on the (Russian) nuclear stockpile,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former senior CIA officer who oversaw the agency’s clandestine operations in Europe and Eurasia.
“You want to know who has control of the nuclear weapons because you’re worried that terrorists or bad guys like (Chechen leader Ramzan) Kadyrov might come after them for the leverage they can get,” said Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA officer who served as the agency’s Moscow station chief.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said the turmoil caused by the unprecedented challenge to the authority of Putin by Wagner fighters may not be over yet and could take weeks or months to play out.
Blinken in a series of television interviews said tensions that led to the aborted mutiny had been rising for months and that the turmoil could affect Moscow’s capabilities in Ukraine.
Italy’s foreign minister said it had shattered the “myth” of Russian unity.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Wagner revolt, which sparked a flurry of high-level calls between Western leaders, exposed turmoil in Russia.
“Today, the world can see that the masters of Russia control nothing. And that means nothing. Simply complete chaos. An absence of any predictability,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.
China, a key ally of Putin, made no initial public reference to the turmoil, eventually saying after talks with a visiting senior Russian diplomat on Sunday that it supported Russia’s efforts to maintain its national stability.
North Korea’s vice foreign minister, in a meeting with the Russian ambassador on Sunday, said he supported any decision by the Russian leadership to deal with the recent mutiny, North Korean state media reported.
Vice Foreign Minister Im Chon-il “expressed firm belief that the recent armed rebellion in Russia would be successfully put down in conformity with the aspiration and will of the Russian people,” state KCNA news agency said.