Israel’s regional desperation
Hanif Ghaffari
Middle East affairs expert
As the foreign minister of Iran traveled to China and met with his Saudi Arabian counterpart in Beijing, Israel launched extensive attacks on the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon while also arresting and injuring numerous Palestinians at Al-Aqsa Mosque. These seemingly disparate events are in fact interconnected, and comprehending their underlying implications requires accepting some assumptions.
Firstly, Israel considers the maintenance of peace and stability in the Middle East region a danger to itself. The grand strategies of both Israel and the United States dictate that the components of peace and stability in the Middle East region must not be fortified. Consequently, they view any development that might disrupt this precarious balance with intense suspicion and hostility.
Secondly, Israel has been unequivocal in its opposition to the restoration of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Israeli authorities had anticipated that the process of normalizing their relations with Arab countries could be employed as a means of isolating Iran. However, the recent agreement between Tehran and Riyadh has left Israel feeling aggrieved and incensed.
Given these two assumptions, it is evident that Israel’s recent attacks on southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, as well as its heightened bellicosity towards Iran, are a manifestation of its regional desperation. Israel views the establishment of peace and stability in the region as a direct threat to its strategic interests and is thus determined to undermine any development that could strengthen this trend.
Furthermore, Israel’s recent actions serve a twofold purpose: firstly, to divert attention away from its internal conflicts and the surging tide of public protests, and secondly, to upset the balance of power that is gradually taking shape in the region as a result of the thaw in ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This new equilibrium promises to be conducive to the promotion of peace and stability in the region, which is a development that Israel finds deeply disconcerting.
However, the achievement of Israel’s objectives depends on the presence of a stable and robust cabinet as well as effective coordination between politicians and top military brass. Such components are lacking in Israel at present. The cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in disarray, particularly in the aftermath of the protests against the judicial reform bill, and is plagued by a lack of coherence and stability. Furthermore, there are increasing differences among the members of the ruling coalition.
Moreover, there are growing tensions between the military and politicians in Israel. The military has participated actively in recent protests, siding with the demonstrators against the policies of the Netanyahu cabinet. As a result, Israel’s prospects for achieving its goals are bleak, and the attacks on southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip represent the last-ditch efforts of the Netanyahu government to preserve its power and influence.
Many experts believe that the collapse of the coalition government ruling Israel is a distinct possibility. Netanyahu and his government are facing unprecedented challenges both domestically and regionally, and their desperation is palpable. It remains to be seen whether Israel will be able to weather these storms and emerge with its strategic interests intact — a possibility that seems to be remote.